by Frank White
Over the span of a few days in May 2023, two “space tourism” missions left the Earth with very different technologies, passengers, and destinations.
Virgin Galactic flew its first crewed mission since Unity22 lifted off in the summer of 2021, with its founder, Sir Richard Branson, on board. This time around, the six passengers were all employees of Virgin, checking things out before paying customers got on board for a suborbital experience. When the customers begin flying, they will have paid $250,000 to $425,000 for the opportunity.
By contrast, Axiom sent four “new astronauts” to the International Space Station for a 10-day stay at a price of $55 million each. It was their second mission of this type, using a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft for the trip.
What does it all mean? Is the long-anticipated era of “space tourism” finally here? Will thousands, even millions, of people begin experiencing the Overview Effect?
For the moment, it is probably more accurate to say that this new era is “near,” rather than “here.” Except for the very expensive flights to the ISS, most launches will result in brief suborbital missions. This does not mean that the experiences of the passengers won’t be powerful. My interviews to date with suborbital astronauts suggest quite the contrary: they have had meaningful experiences that they considered to be well worth the cost.
However, except for those who have been able to travel to the International Space Station, the suborbital astronauts have not had anywhere to go; there has been no destination for them.
The relatively high price of most rocket rides, coupled with the lack of a destination, means that this is, at best, “phase one” of the Space Tourism industry. Other carriers, like stratospheric balloon companies Space Perspective and World View, are already offering lower prices, with a cost of a flight with them closer to $100,000.
Moreover, it is in the interest of all space companies to bring down ticket prices. They are unlikely to maximize income with a high cost/low volume business model. When I interviewed Sir Richard Branson in 2013 for The Overview Effect, he made it clear he was committed to “democratizing space” by following the approach that has made commercial aviation successful: start with high prices for high-net-worth individuals, and drive both costs and prices down to open access to everyone else.
We are in a position where we can create a spaceship company to bring the price down from $50 million to $250,000, which is still very expensive for the majority of people. But then, these initial pioneers will help bring the price down to a reasonable level and enable thousands of people who had never dreamed of going into space to do so. (1)
The destination issue is also being addressed. NASA has awarded several contracts to companies to build private space stations that will succeed the ISS. Among the organizations involved are Blue Origin, Axiom, Northrop Grumman, Nanoracks, and Above Space.
To be sure, there remain multiple challenges before the space tourism industry can “take off” (pun intended). For example, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin’s current spacecraft are designed for suborbital flight only. They will need to move ahead with new systems before they can access the destinations that are now being developed.
However, I think we can safely say that readers of this blog who are currently in their 20s, or even their 30s, might be vacationing somewhere other than planet Earth in the near future!
References
(1) The Overview Effect: Space Exploration and Human Evolution, By Frank White, Multiverse Publishing, Denver, 2021, https://multiversepublishingllc.com
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