The Feasibility of Reaching Mars by 2030
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In Part One of this series, we asked the question, “Can the United States fulfill President Trump’s pledge to plant the American flag on the planet Mars?”
The conclusion: Maybe.
In Part 2 of our series, we ask a new question:
“Should we attempt a crewed mission to Mars by 2028?”
Goals and Perspectives
The answer to this question depends largely on your ultimate goal for space exploration and development as a whole.
For example, if you perceive the United States to be in a race with, say, the Chinese, similar to the “Space Race” with the Soviet Union in the 1960’s, the answer might be, “Yes, we can leap ahead of the Chinese by going to Mars while they continue to concentrate on the Moon.” (Of course, the counter-argument might be, “By going to Mars, you cede control of the Moon to the Chinese. Do you really want that?”)
On the other hand, if you prefer international cooperation in outer space to national competition, you might argue against the president’s nationalistic approach of planting the American flag on Mars. You might argue that, if there is going to be such a mission, it ought to be international in nature, but that approach doesn’t seem to be in the cards.
If you believe, as Elon Musk does, that we must establish a city on Mars to preserve the human species in case the Earth succumbs to an existential threat like an asteroid strike, then you will enthusiastically support the President’s pledge. You will see it as a matter of the utmost urgency. As a side benefit, you might see such an endeavor as exciting Americans about “Space with a capital S” again, as did the Apollo missions.
Finally, if you envision a future in which NASA, the other space agencies, and the private sector incrementally expand the human presence throughout the rest of the solar ecosystem, you might oppose such a mission as a dangerous detour and unwelcome distraction. The incremental approach, resulting in billions of people living and working off-world is favored by Musk’s rival, Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of Blue Origin.
Recently, the government and private space companies have been touting the creation of a “cislunar economy” built around NASA’s commitment to the Artemis program, which includes landing astronauts on the Moon in this decade. In NASA’s plan, a permanent presence on the Moon will provide the opportunity to learn how to live and work on Mars. Going to Mars first could be a problem for companies who have committed resources to focusing on the Moon.
Lessons from Apollo
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Once again, we look for a precedent in the Apollo program. What does it tell us?
Apollo inspired people with its boldness, spirit of innovation, and sheer determination to reach an important goal. With photographs like the iconic “Earthrise” and “Blue Marble,” it provided milestones in establishing the validity of the Overview Effect® and giving a kickstart to the environmental movement.
On the other hand, it was a classic “flags and footprint” mission, leaving no permanent presence on the Moon and no plan for a permanent settlement there or anywhere else beyond Earth. It has been almost 50 years since a human walked on our celestial neighbor, and NASA has found it difficult to define a mission that garnered similar levels of public support since those heady days of the 1960’s. Apollo galvanized NASA, but its cancelation left the agency with an identity crisis in the 1970’s.
What do you think?
There are many other pro’s and con’s for a single Mars mission, but the likelihood of a pivot to Mars in the next few years likely depends on the mindset of one person, President Trump. Even if achieving the goal turns out to be impossible during his term and while the Artemis program’s end goal is boots on Mars, shifting near term attention from the Moon to Mars for a few years will be highly disruptive to NASA, and potentially, to the private space industry.
So, should we got to Mars? As I suggested in Part One of this series, the answer is a resounding “Maybe!”
What do you think?
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About the Author
Frank White is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, a member of Phi Beta Kappa, and a Rhodes Scholar. He earned an M.Phil. in Politics from Oxford University, where he was a member of New College. The fourth edition of Frank’s best-known book, The Overview Effect: Space Exploration and Human Evolution, was published by Multiverse Publishing, a division of Multiverse Media LLC, in 2022. Frank is president of The Human Space Program, Inc., a nonprofit organization based on an idea initially proposed in The Overview Effect. The Overview Effect® is a registered trademark owned by William Frank White.
(c) Copyright Frank White, 2025, All Rights Reserved. Published with permission by Above Space
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